What’s happening: After two years of DFL “trifecta” control of the state House, Senate, and governor’s office, MN Republicans took aim at the one target on the ballot in 2024: the House.
They won 67 seats… and so did the Democrats. A rare occurrence, just not the first.
Party leaders say this time won’t look like last time. That’s true in one sense; the leaders today are women, whereas all major players in the 1970s were men. Not to mention the myriad ways the makeup of the House has changed since.
Even so, if we look back at the broader political climate at the time, one can draw parallels to today, when a party on a winning streak found itself suddenly in a dead heat. So what happened?
That 70s Show: From “Miracle” to “Massacre”
1971: In a legislative session that lasts all summer, DFL governor Wendell Anderson pulls off what’s called the “Minnesota Miracle”—a series of tax reforms that remake how Minnesota schools get funded.
1973: Anderson sails to reelection, carrying all 87 Minnesota counties.
1974: Republican president Richard Nixon resigns in disgrace over Watergate, and the hurt doesn’t stop for the Grand Old Party. Democrats dominate the fall midterms.
1975: Minnesota Republicans try to distance themselves from their toxic national brand, adopting the name “Independent-Republicans”, which sticks around until 1995.
1976: Democrats reclaim the presidency. Experts blame President Ford’s loss, partly, on his pardon of Nixon. Years on, Republicans aren’t fully rehabilitated.
1978: The DFL holds nearly three-quarters of the Minnesota House, both U.S. Senate seats, and the governorship. In November, Independent-Republicans flip all three statewide races and battle to a draw in the House. A 67-67 tie.
The DFL losses are dubbed the “Minnesota Massacre.” (A cavalier moniker by today’s standards, but times change; this was back when Jaws and James Bond movies were rated PG.)
A power sharing agreement that works, until it—and one member—collapses
Before the 1979 legislative session, House party leaders negotiate a power sharing agreement that puts the coveted Speaker’s gavel in Independent-Republican hands. In trade, the DFL gets chairmanships and voting majorities in the chamber’s most powerful committees.
Worth noting: The DFL never concedes the Speakership outright. Independent-Republicans elect their Speaker on a party-line vote, when the DFL is down a vote after one of their members is temporarily hospitalized. Democrats never take their eye off the Speakership prize.
For most of the session, it’s smooth sailing. The dead-even split forces cooperation and participation. Bills coming out of conference committees are broadly bipartisan; anything less is dead on arrival. Attendance is strong; any vote at any time could be a swing vote.
Ten days before the end of the legislative session, the Minnesota Supreme Court finds Rep. Bob Pavlak, Independent-Republican, guilty of deliberately violating campaign law. The DFL jumps at the chance to unseat Pavlak and wrest back the Speakership.
In a tense floor session debating his fate, an emotional Pavlak rises to criticize the “kangaroo court” his colleagues are running—before literally collapsing on the House floor from stress.
Pavlak recovers, but it’s over. The DFL votes to unseat him, 67-66. House rules prevent Pavlak from voting for his own rescue, which would have hung the judgment in a stalemate.
Temperatures run hot on the last day of the session. The Democrats become incensed at the Independent-Republicans’ latest parliamentary chicanery—itself retaliation for similar moves by their DFL colleagues. (More tit for tat over Rep. Pavlak.)
Minutes before the midnight deadline, with bills still to pass, the Democrats walk out of the chamber.
The legislature wraps unfinished business in a one-day special session later that week. A fragile balance, upended and shattered.
Is the past only the future with the lights on?
1978 and 2024 were both preceded by consequential legislative sessions. The DFL trifecta passed a heap of legislation in 2023 that included record education funding. Another “Minnesota Miracle” á la 1971? Ask partisans on either side and compare their answers. But it was undoubtedly a big deal for the DFL. (They even made a drone video.)
Both elections came after years of DFL electoral dominance. Despite taking several cycles to clinch their short-lived trifecta, the party hadn’t lost a statewide race since 2006.
But let’s be real: 2025 is not 1979. We can look back to find clues, but not a crystal ball. The only thing that feels absolutely sure? Both parties will jump at the first chance to break the tie. No matter the harmony and magnanimity we see presented before then.
A race in House District 54A, where just 14 votes separate the victor and the vanquished, is still being contested. Flip that race, Republicans take the chamber. A separate challenge in 40B could likewise swing control their way.
That would make things easier, albeit with clear political winners and losers. But we aren’t holding our breath—especially with a small chance of a tie in the Senate. Things might get harder first.
Epilogue: 3… 2… 1…
After being removed from the House, Bob Pavlak ran in the special election to regain his old seat. He lost his bid by only 321 votes, the exact same margin by which he’d won in the historic 1978 election the year before.
As Mark Twain is credited with saying, and as the 2024 election demonstrates: History doesn’t repeat itself.
But it rhymes.